典型文献
Validation of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score for the prediction of 1-year mortality in a Chinese cohort
文献摘要：
Background::The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score was developed in 2013 to predict survival in heart failure (HF) patients. However, it has yet to be validated in a Chinese population. Our study aimed to investigate the ability of the score to predict 1-year mortality in a Chinese population.Methods::Consecutive patients with HF were retrospectively selected from the inpatient electronic medical records of the cardiology department in a regional hospital in China. A total integer score was calculated for each enrolled patient based on the value of each risk factor in the MAGGIC scoring system. Each enrolled patient was followed for at least 1 year. The observational endpoint of this study was all-cause mortality. The predictive ability of the MAGGIC score was assessed by comparing observed and predicted mortality within 1 year.Results::Between January 2018 and December 2020, a total of 635 patients were included in the study: 57 (9.0%) of whom died within 1 year after discharge. The average age of all patients was 74.6 ± 11.2 years, 264 of them (41.6%) were male, and the average left ventricular ejection fraction was 50.7% ± 13.2%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.840 (95% confidence interval: 0.779, 0.901), which indicated a fair discriminatory ability of the score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result (
χ2 = 12.902, degree of freedom = 8,
P = 0.115) indicated that the MAGGIC score had good calibration. The decision curve analysis showed that the MAGGIC score yielded a good clinical net benefit and net reduction in interventions.
Conclusions::This validation of the MAGGIC score showed that it has a good ability to predict 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with HF after discharge. Due to regional and inter-hospital differences, external validation studies need to be further confirmed in other centers.
文献关键词：
Validation;Risk prediction;MAGGIC;Heart failure;Mortality;Chinese
中图分类号：
作者姓名：
Xu Duo;Dong Yanjing;Zhang Bo;Li Li;Jiang Chenyang
作者机构：
Department of Cardiology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 3100016, China;Department of Cardiology, CHC International Hospital, Cixi, Zhejiang 315310, China
文献出处：
引用格式：
[1]Xu Duo;Dong Yanjing;Zhang Bo;Li Li;Jiang Chenyang-.Validation of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score for the prediction of 1-year mortality in a Chinese cohort)[J].中华医学杂志（英文版）,2022(23):2829-2835
A类：
MAGGIC
B类：
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AB值：
0.50664
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