BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish an eff ective nomogram to predict the survival of heat stroke (HS) based on risk factors.METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational multicenter cohort study. We analyzed patients diagnosed with HS, who were treated between May 1 and September 30, 2018 at 15 tertiary hospitals from 11 cities in Northern China. RESULTS: Among the 175 patients, 32 patients (18.29％) died before hospital discharge. After the univariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg, maximum heart rate, lab results on day 1 (white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine), and Glasgow admission prediction score were included in multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox regression showed that invasive ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), and Glasgow admission prediction score were independent risk factors for HS. The nomogram was established for predicting 7-d and 14-d survival in the training cohort. The nomogram exhibited a concordance index (C-index) of 0.880 (95％ confidence interval [95％ CI] 0.831–0.930) by bootstrapping validation (B=1,000). Furthermore, the nomogram performed better when predicting 14-d survival, compared to 7-d survival. The prognostic index cut-off value was set at 2.085, according to the operating characteristic curve for overall survival prediction. The model showed good calibration ability in the internal and external validation datasets. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram, integrated with prognostic factors, was proposed; it was highly predictive of the survival in HS patients.

Fei Shao;Xian Shi;Shu-hua Huo;Qing-yu Liu;Ji-xue Shi;Jian Kang;Ping Gong;Sheng-tao Yan;Guo-xingWang;Li-jie Qin;Fei Wang;Ke Feng;Feng-ying Chen;Yong-jie Yin;Tao Ma;Yan Li;Yang Wu;Hao Cui;Chang-xiao Yu;Song Yang;Wei Gan;Sai Wang;Liu-ye-zi Du;Ming-chen Zhao;Zi-ren Tang;Shen Zhao

Department of Emergency Medicine,Beijing Chaoyang Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100020,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,Hebei Yanda Hospital,Langfang 065201,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,Beijing Huairou Hospital,Beijing 101400,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University,Shijiazhuang 050000,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University,Tai'an 271000,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University,Dalian 116011,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,China-Japan Friendship Hospital,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,Beijing Friendship Hospital,Beijing 100050,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,Henan Provincial People's Hospital,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,Beijing Tsinghua Changung Hospital,Beijing 102218,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University,Yinchuan 750004,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot 010050,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the Second Hospital of Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the First Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang 110001,China;Department of Emergency Medicine,the Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,China;Department of Big Data Research,Goodwill Hessian Health Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085,China;School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation,Beijing 100020,China;Department of Critical Care Medicine,Beijing Friendship Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100050,China

世界急诊医学杂志（英文）

[1]Fei Shao;Xian Shi;Shu-hua Huo;Qing-yu Liu;Ji-xue Shi;Jian Kang;Ping Gong;Sheng-tao Yan;Guo-xingWang;Li-jie Qin;Fei Wang;Ke Feng;Feng-ying Chen;Yong-jie Yin;Tao Ma;Yan Li;Yang Wu;Hao Cui;Chang-xiao Yu;Song Yang;Wei Gan;Sai Wang;Liu-ye-zi Du;Ming-chen Zhao;Zi-ren Tang;Shen Zhao-.Development and evaluation of a predictive nomogram for survival in heat stroke patients: a retrospective cohort study)[J].世界急诊医学杂志（英文）,2022(05):355-360

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