典型文献
Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in South American countries
文献摘要：
Background::The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic hit South America badly with multiple waves. Different COVID-19 variants have been storming across the region, leading to more severe infections and deaths even in places with high vaccination coverage. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal variability of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR) and reproduction number (
R0) for twelve most affected South American countries.
Methods::We fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR)-based model with a time-varying transmission rate to the reported COVID-19 deaths for the twelve South American countries with the highest mortalities. Most of the epidemiological datasets analysed in this work are retrieved from the disease surveillance systems by the World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Our World in Data. We investigate the COVID-19 mortalities in these countries, which could represent the situation for the overall South American region. We employ COVID-19 dynamic model with-and-without vaccination considering time-varying flexible transmission rate to estimate IFR, IAR and
R0 of COVID-19 for the South American countries.
Results::We simulate the model in each scenario under suitable parameter settings and yield biologically reasonable estimates for IFR (varies between 0.303% and 0.723%), IAR (varies between 0.03 and 0.784) and
R0 (varies between 0.7 and 2.5) for the 12 South American countries. We observe that the severity, dynamical patterns of deaths and time-varying transmission rates among the countries are highly heterogeneous. Further analysis of the model with the effect of vaccination highlights that increasing the vaccination rate could help suppress the pandemic in South America.
Conclusions::This study reveals possible reasons for the two waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in South America. We observed reductions in the transmission rate corresponding to each wave plausibly due to improvement in nonpharmaceutical interventions measures and human protective behavioral reaction to recent deaths. Thus, strategies coupling social distancing and vaccination could substantially suppress the mortality rate of COVID-19 in South America.
文献关键词：
COVID-19;Epidemic model;Infection fatality rate;Infection attack rate;Pandemic;Reproduction number
中图分类号：
作者姓名：
Musa Salihu Sabiu;Tariq Amna;Yuan Liu;Haozhen Wei;He Daihai
作者机构：
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China;Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria;Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA
文献出处：
引用格式：
[1]Musa Salihu Sabiu;Tariq Amna;Yuan Liu;Haozhen Wei;He Daihai-.Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in South American countries)[J].贫困所致传染病（英文）,2022(02):42-52
A类：
storming,nonpharmaceutical
B类：
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AB值：
0.512335
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