典型文献
Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh
文献摘要：
Forecasting the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries demands time to know the severity of the novel coronavirus. This research aims to predict all types of COVID-19 cases (verified people, deaths, and recoveries) from the deadliest 3rd wave data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. We used the official website of the Directorate General of Health Services as our data source. To identify and predict the upcoming trends of the COVID-19 situation of Bangladesh, we fit the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on the data from Mar. 01, 2021 to Jul. 31, 2021. The finding of the ARIMA model (forecast model) reveals that infected, deaths, and recoveries number will have experienced exponential growth in Bangladesh to October 2021. Our model reports that confirmed cases and deaths will escalate by four times, and the recoveries will improve by five times at a later point in October 2021 if the trend of the three scenarios of COVID-19 from March to July lasts. The prediction of the COVID-19 scenario for the next three months is very frightening in Bangladesh, so the strategic planner and field-level personnel need to search for suitable policies and strategies and adopt these for controlling the mass transmission of the virus.
文献关键词：
COVID-19;ARIMA model;Forecast;Confirmed cases;Deaths;Recoveries
中图分类号：
作者姓名：
Nesa Mossamet Kamrun;Babu Md. Rashed;Khan Mohammad Tareq Mamun
作者机构：
Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh;Moulvibazar Government Women College, Moulvibazar 3203, Bangladesh
文献出处：
引用格式：
[1]Nesa Mossamet Kamrun;Babu Md. Rashed;Khan Mohammad Tareq Mamun-.Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh)[J].生物安全与健康 （英文）,2022(01):6-10
A类：
Directorate,Jul,escalate,Deaths,Recoveries
B类：
Forecasting,situation,Bangladesh,confirmed,cases,deaths,recoveries,demands,know,severity,novel,coronavirus,This,research,aims,all,types,verified,people,from,deadliest,3rd,wave,data,pandemic,We,used,official,website,General,Health,Services,source,To,identify,upcoming,trends,fit,Auto,Regressive,Integrated,Moving,Average,ARIMA,model,finding,forecast,reveals,that,infected,number,will,have,experienced,exponential,growth,October,Our,reports,by,four,times,improve,five,later,point,three,scenarios,March,July,lasts,prediction,next,months,very,frightening,strategic,planner,field,level,personnel,need,suitable,policies,strategies,adopt,these,controlling,mass,transmission,Confirmed
AB值：
0.5182
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机标中图分类号，由域田数据科技根据网络公开资料自动分析生成，仅供学习研究参考。
