How to simulate land-cover change,driven by climate change and human activity,is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable ur-banization.A surface-modeling method of land cover scenario(SSMLC)driven by the cou-pling of natural and human factors was developed to overcome limitations in existing land-cover models.Based on the climatic scenario data of CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 released by IPCC in 2020,which combines shared socioeconomic paths(SSPs)with typical concentration paths(RCPs),observation climatic data concerning meteorological stations,the population,GDP,transportation data,land-cover data from 2020,and related policy refences,are used to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in the Jing-Jin-Ji region using SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040,2070 and 2100,respectively.The simulation results show that the total accuracy of SSMLC in the Jing-Jin-Ji region attains 93.52％.The change intensity of land cover in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is the highest(plus 3.12％per decade)between 2020 and 2040,gradually decreasing after 2040.Built-up land has the fastest increasing rate(plus 5.07％per decade),and wetland has the fastest decreasing rate(minus 3.10％per decade)between 2020 and 2100.The change intensity of land cover under scenario SSP5-8.5 is the highest among the abovementioned three scenarios in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2020 and 2100.The impacts of GDP,population,transportation,and policies on land-cover change are generally greater than those on other land-cover types.The results indicate that the SSMLC method can be used to project the change trend and intensity of land cover under the different scenarios.This will help to optimize the spatial al-location and planning of land cover,and could be used to obtain key data for carrying out eco-environmental conservation measures in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in the future.

FAN Zemeng

State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Ap-plication,Nanjing 210023,China

地理学报（英文版）

[1]FAN Zemeng-.Simulation of land-cover change in Jing-Jin-Ji region under different scenarios of SSP-RCP)[J].地理学报（英文版）,2022(03):421-440

banization,SSMLC,refences

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