Water security is under threat worldwide from climate change. A warming climate would accelerate evaporation and cryosphere melting, leading to reduced water availability and unpredictable water supply. However, the water crisis in the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) faces dual challenges because water demands for fast-growing urban areas have put heavy pressure on water resources. The mountain-oasis-desert system features glacier-fed rivers that sustain intensive water use in the oasis and end in the desert as fragile terminal lakes. The complex balance between water conservation and economic development is subtle. This paper investigates changes in hydroclimatic variables and water security-related issues on the NSTM. The spatiotemporal variations in glaciers, climatic variables, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, groundwater, surface water, human water use, and streamflow were analyzed for the past four decades. The results show that temperature in the NSTM exhibited an apparent upward trend with a more significant warming rate in the higher altitude regions. Glacier mass loss and shrinkage was strong. The average annual streamflow increased from 1980-1989 to 2006–2011 at most hydrological stations. The monthly dynamics of surface water area showed notable variability at both inter-annual and seasonal scales, revealing the impacts of both natural and anthropogenic drivers on surface water availability in the region. The terrestrial water storage anomaly showed a decreasing trend, which might be related to groundwater pumping for irrigation. Human water use for agriculture and industry grew with the increase in cultivated land area and gross domestic product (GDP). The increased agricultural water use was strongly associated with the expansion of oases. It is unclear whether water availability would remain high under future climatic and hydrological uncertainties, posing challenges to water management. In the context of rapid urban growth and climate change, balancing water for humans and nature is vital in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in NSTM. This study provides a baseline understanding of the interplay among water, climate change, and socio-economic development in NSTM. It would also shed light on wise water management under environmental changes for other rapidly developing mountain-oasis-desert systems worldwide.

Qiuhong Tang;Xingcai Liu;Yuanyuan Zhou;Puyu Wang;Zhongqin Li;Zhixin Hao;Suxia Liu;Gang Zhao;Bingqi Zhu;Xinlin He;Fadong Li;Guang Yang;Li He;Haoxin Deng;Zongxia Wang;Xiang Ao;Zhi Wang;Paul P.J.Gaffney;Lifeng Luo

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science/Tianshan Glaciological Station,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Water Conservancy and Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Beijing 100101,China;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Hydrology Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 83000,China;Department of Geography,Environment,and Spatial Sciences,Michigan State University,MI 48824,United States

地理学与可持续性（英文）

[1]Qiuhong Tang;Xingcai Liu;Yuanyuan Zhou;Puyu Wang;Zhongqin Li;Zhixin Hao;Suxia Liu;Gang Zhao;Bingqi Zhu;Xinlin He;Fadong Li;Guang Yang;Li He;Haoxin Deng;Zongxia Wang;Xiang Ao;Zhi Wang;Paul P.J.Gaffney;Lifeng Luo-.Climate change and water security in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains)[J].地理学与可持续性（英文）,2022(03):246-257

NSTM,hydroclimatic

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