Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin (2015)'s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin's prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13's water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin's intensity, including its rapid intensification (RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane's RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.

Lei ZHU;Zhiyong MENG;Yonghui WENG;and Fuqing ZHANG

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere Studies,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;I.M.System Group(IMSG),at Environmental Modeling Center(EMC),NCEP,NWS,NOAA,College Park,MD 20740,USA;Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science,and Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques,The Pennsylvania State University,University Park,Pennsylvania 16802,USA

大气科学进展（英文版）

[1]Lei ZHU;Zhiyong MENG;Yonghui WENG;and Fuqing ZHANG-.Assimilation of All-sky Geostationary Satellite Infrared Radiances for Convection-Permitting Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Joaquin (2015))[J].大气科学进展（英文版）,2022(11):1859-1872

Radiances,Permitting,Initialization,Hurricane,Joaquin,radiances

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