Surface solar irradiance(SSI)nowcasting(0-3 h)is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants.In this study,an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)geostationary satellite.The system is composed of two key components:The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model.The second component is the SSI nowcasting model,the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector(CMV)using the block-matching method.The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance(GHI)and direct normal irradiance(DNI)is fulfilled.The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe,a radiation station in the North China Plain.The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation,with a normalized root-mean-square error(nRMSE)of 22.4％relative to 45.4％.The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30-180 min ahead varied within 25.1％-30.8％and 48.1％-53.4％,respectively.The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern,being lower in spring-summer and higher in autumn-winter.The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting,which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China.The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.

Chunlin HUANG;Hongrong SHI;Ling GAO;Mengqi LIU;Qixiang CHEN;Disong FU;Shu WANG;Yuan YUAN;Xiang'ao XIA

Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China;Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;National Satellite Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100192,China;Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Rene wable Energy&Storage Systems,China Electric Po wer Research Institute(CEPRI),Beijing 100192,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University ofInformation Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

大气科学进展（英文版）

[1]Chunlin HUANG;Hongrong SHI;Ling GAO;Mengqi LIU;Qixiang CHEN;Disong FU;Shu WANG;Yuan YUAN;Xiang'ao XIA-.Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China)[J].大气科学进展（英文版）,2022(08):1316-1328

GHI,Xianghe

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