Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is important to local and downstream ecosystems. Based on a weighting method considering model skill and independence, changes in the TP precipitation for near-term (2021–40), mid-term (2041–60) and long-term (2081–2100) under shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) are projected with 27 models from the latest Sixth Phase of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 7.4％–21.6％ under five SSPs with a stronger change in the northern TP by the end of the 21st century relative to the present climatology. Changes in the TP precipitation at seasonal scales show a similar moistening trend to that of annual mean precipitation, except for the drying trend in winter precipitation along the southern edges of the TP.Weighting generally suggests a slightly stronger increase in TP precipitation with reduced model uncertainty compared to equally-weighted projections. The effect of weighting exhibits spatial and seasonal differences. Seasonally, weighting leads to a prevailing enhancement of increase in spring precipitation over the TP. Spatially, the influence of weighting is more remarkable over the northwestern TP regarding the annual, summer and autumn precipitation. Differences between weighted and original MMEs can give us more confidence in a stronger increase in precipitation over the TP, especially for the season of spring and the region of the northwestern TP, which requires additional attention in decision making.

Yin ZHAO;Tianjun ZHOU;Wenxia ZHANG;Jian LI

LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100029,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100049,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

大气科学进展（英文版）

[1]Yin ZHAO;Tianjun ZHOU;Wenxia ZHANG;Jian LI-.Change in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Weighted CMIP6 Models※)[J].大气科学进展（英文版）,2022(07):1133-1150

SSSP3,moistening,Seasonally

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