Climate change has attracted significant attention due to its increasing impacts on various aspects of the world,and future climate projections are of vital importance for associated adaptation and mitigation,particularly at the regional scale.However,the skill level of the model projections over China in the past more than ten years remains unknown.In this study,we retrospectively investigate the skill of climate models within the Third(TAR),Fourth(AR4),and Fifth(AR5)Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)for the near-term projections of near-surface(2 m)air temperature changes in China.Those models are revealed to be skillful in projecting the subsequent climatology and trend of the temperature changes in China during 2002-2018 from several to ten years ahead,with higher scores for the climatology than for the trend.The model projections display cold biases against observations in most of China,while the nationally averaged trend is overestimated by TAR models during 2002-2018 but underestimated by AR4 models during 2008-2018.For all emission scenarios,there is no obvious difference between the equal-and unequal-weighted averages based on the arithmetic averaging and reliability ensemble averaging method respectively,however the uncer-tainty range of projection is narrowed after weighting.The near-term temperature projections differ slightly among various emission scenarios for the climatology but are largely different for the trend.

Dan Hu;Dabang Jiang;Zhiping Tian;Xianmei Lang

Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijing 100085,China

科学通报（英文版）

[1]Dan Hu;Dabang Jiang;Zhiping Tian;Xianmei Lang-.How skillful was the projected temperature over China during 2002-2018?)[J].科学通报（英文版）,2022(10):1077-1085

AR4

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