Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep un-certainties.Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty.This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai.Real options analysis(ROA)and dy-namic adaptive policy pathways(DAPP)were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options.The results show that:(1)Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai;(2)Among the three flood control meas-ures,wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio,followed by dry-floodproofing,and elevation;(3)Dry-floodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period(2030-2100),and it can be replaced by wet-flood-proofing in 2035-2042;the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation,but its performance will decline after 2041-2045;(4)The com-bined strategy of dry-and wet-floodproofing in 2044-2046 and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047-2051.The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and fea-sible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.

Xinmeng Shan;Jun Wang;Jiahong Wen;Hengzhi Hu;Lei Wang;Jie Yin;Mengya Li

Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science,Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Key Laboratory of Spatial-Temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities,Ministry of Natural Resources,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;Department of Hospitality Management,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235,China;Department of Geography and Anthropology,Louisiana State University,Baton Rouge,LA 70810,USA

国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

[1]Xinmeng Shan;Jun Wang;Jiahong Wen;Hengzhi Hu;Lei Wang;Jie Yin;Mengya Li-.Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods)[J].国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）,2022(04):577-591

Floods,floodproofing

Using,Multidisciplinary,Analysis,Develop,Adaptation,Options,against,Extreme,Coastal,Long,adaptation,decision,making,are,complex,because,future,full,certainties,Flexibility,robustness,used,deal,uncertainty,This,study,developed,integrated,modeling,framework,that,extends,previous,studies,spatial,domain,assess,risks,cost,benefit,three,measures,four,types,buildings,Shanghai,Real,options,analysis,ROA,adaptive,policy,pathways,DAPP,were,dynamic,identify,results,Sea,level,rise,land,subsidence,will,significantly,exacerbate,Among,control,wet,has,best,economic,performance,terms,both,net,present,value,ratio,followed,by,dry,elevation,Dry,beginning,period,replaced,also,shows,good,implementation,but,its,decline,after,bined,strategy,hybrid,combining,should,optimal,solution,reducing,methodology,this,provide,insights,coastal,cities,formulate,effective,fea,sible,strategies,deeply

0.530846