In the context of climate change,the impact of extreme precipitation and its chain effects has intensified in the southeastern coastal region of China,posing a serious threat to the socioeconomic development in the region.This study took tropical cyclones-extreme precipitation-flash floods as an example to carry out a risk assessment of flash floods under climate change in the Yantanxi River Basin,southeastern China.To obtain the flash flood inun-dation characteristics through hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling,the study combined representative concentration pathway(RCP)and shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios to examine the change of flash flood risk and used the geographical detector to explore the driving fac-tors behind the change.The results show that flash flood risk in the Yantanxi River Basin will significantly increase,and that socioeconomic factors and precipitation are the main driving forces.Under the RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios,the risk of flash floods is expected to increase by 88.79％and 95.57％,respectively.The main drivers in the case study area are GDP density(q=0.85),process rainfall(q=0.74),asset density(q=0.68),and population density(q=0.67).The study highlights the influence of socioeconomic factors on the change of flash flood disaster risk in small river basins.Our findings also provide a reference for regional planning and construction of flood control facilities in flash flood-prone areas,which may help to reduce the risk of flash floods.

Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

[1]Liutong Chen;Zhengtao Yan;Qian Li;Yingjun Xu-.Flash Flood Risk Assessment and Driving Factors:A Case Study of the Yantanxi River Basin,Southeastern China)[J].国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）,2022(02):291-304

Yantanxi,inun

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