Traditionally, a delayed (early) onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) has been observed to follow a warm (cold) El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in winter, supporting high seasonal predictability of SCSSM onset. However, the empirical seasonal forecasting skill of the SCSSM onset, solely based on ENSO, has deteriorated since 2010. Meanwhile, unexpected delayed onsets of the SCSSM have also occurred in the past decade. We attribute these changes to the Northwest Indian Ocean (NWIO) warming of the sea surface. The NWIO warming has teleconnections related to (1) suppressing the seasonal convection over the South China Sea, which weakens the impacts of ENSO on SCSSM onset and delays the start of SCSSM, and (2) favoring more high-frequency, propagating moist convective activities, which enhances the uncertainty of the seasonal prediction of SCSSM onset date. Our results yield insight into the predictability of the SCSSM onset under the context of uneven ocean warming operating within the larger-scale background state of global climate change.

State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW)and Institute of Climate System,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510641,China;School of Marine Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science& Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

[1]Yang AI;Ning JIANG;Weihong QIAN;Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG;Yanying CHEN-.Strengthened Regulation of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon by the Northwest Indian Ocean Warming in the Past Decade)[J].大气科学进展（英文版）,2022(06):943-952

SCSSM,NWIO,teleconnections

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