典型文献
Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System
文献摘要：
In this study, the predictability of the El Ni?o-South Oscillation (ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the SST prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Ni?o. The large-scale SST errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific, featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Ni?o decay and the transition to the La Ni?a growth phase. Meanwhile, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor SST predictions of the Ni?o-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions, indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.
文献关键词：
中图分类号：
作者姓名：
Ben TIAN;Hong-Li REN
作者机构：
Laboratory for Climate Studies& CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Institute of Tibetan Plateau& Polar Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Department of Atmospheric Science,School of Environmental Studies,China University of Geoscience,Wuhan 430074,China
文献出处：
引用格式：
[1]Ben TIAN;Hong-Li REN-.Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System)[J].大气科学进展（英文版）,2022(03):427-442
A类：
hindcasts
B类：
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AB值：
0.533102
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